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The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…
1) Dow 50,000
The Dow topped 50,000 last week for the first time, marking its 22nd 1,000-point milestone in the decade of the 20s.
2) Software Sales
Although the Dow hit an all-time high, the same did not happen for the Software Sector ($IGV ETF). The drawdown was -32% last Thursday, the largest since the bear market in 2022.
Here’s a look at recalls at some of the biggest software companies…
Although the sector has been lagging for some time, the sell-off accelerated last week after privately held AI company Anthropic released new functions in its Claude app.
What scares software investors? His ability to review contracts and create legal briefs. The worry is that AI will one day allow companies to create internal applications to handle human resources, sales, customer tracking and other back-office functions.
Would a company still pay a software vendor millions of dollars per year for those services if those services could be done in-house much cheaper? NO.
But have we reached the point where this is being done en masse? NO.
Replacing complex software with AI chatbots is easier said than done and won’t happen overnight. And all of these software companies are leveraging AI to become more efficient.
This begs the question – is this an overreach and an opportunity to buy the biggest software companies while they are on sale? Only time will tell.
3) The Fabulous Two?
Seven’s outsized lead continues to fade, with only Google and Nvidia outperforming the S&P 500 since the start of 2025.
4) The Turning of Everything
International stocks versus US stocks.
Small and Mid Cap Stocks compared to Large Cap Stocks.
Value stocks versus Growth stocks.
That’s the story so far in 2026…
5) The Other Side of Mania
The Crypto craze that followed the 2024 presidential election was a sight to behold, with speculators flocking to take advantage of the new administration’s friendliness towards the Crypto industry.
At its peak on November 20, 2024, the treasury firm’s Bitcoin Strategy ($MSTR) had a market value 3x higher than its underlying Bitcoin holdings. And today, after a 77% drop, he is trading at a discount on his Bitcoin holdings. This is the other side of mania.
At last week’s low of $60k, Bitcoin was down more than 52% from its peak in October 2025. This is the 9th 50+% drop from its all-time high since it began trading on exchanges in 2010.
6) Fed Postponed Until June
Jerome Powell now has two meetings left as Fed chairman and the likelihood of another rate cut under his tenure continues to decline.
The FOMC meeting on March 18 has a 6% chance of a cut, while the meeting on April 29 has a 20% chance.
The market still expects two rate cuts this year, once in June (25 bps cut to 3.25-3.50%) and another in September (25 bps cut to 3.00-3.25%).
7) Some Interesting Statistics…
a) Walmart trades at a higher Forward P/E Ratio (39x) than Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta.
b) Combined revenue of the big 4 US tech companies hit a record $1.86 trillion over the last 12 months. This amount is greater than the GDP of all but 13 countries.
c) 25 years ago: Walmart’s revenue was 47x greater than Amazon’s. 10 years ago: Walmart’s revenue was 3x greater than Amazon’s. Currently: Amazon’s revenue is higher than Walmart’s.
d) The $10,000 invested in Google in its August 2004 IPO is worth more than $1.3 million today.
e) Apple has repurchased $727 billion worth of stock over the past 10 years, greater than the market capitalization of 488 companies in the S&P 500.
And that’s all for this week. Thanks for reading!
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Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosure here.
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