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The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…
1) Stairs Down, Elevator Up
The old market adage “stairs go up, elevator goes down” has been turned on its head this year.
It took the S&P 500 more than two months from its January peak to fall 10% and less than three weeks to surge back to a new all-time high with a 13% vertical rally.
Today the index crossed the figure above 7,100 for the first time.
What is driving the market higher?
Investors hope that the war in Iran has effectively ended and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will soon return to normal.
The Energy sector’s gains and Consumer Discretionary sector’s losses since the start of the war have been completely wiped out as investors bet that Oil and Gasoline prices will soon return to their pre-war levels.
2) The Biggest Trick the Fed Ever Pulled
The overall US CPI rose to 3.3% in March, which was the highest level since April 2024.
This is the 61st consecutive month that the US CPI has been above the Fed’s target of 2%.
The biggest trick the Fed ever pulled was to convince that world inflation of 4% did not exist.
3) Consumers Really Hate Inflation
The University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index dates back to 1952. Amazingly, it has never been as low as it is now. This is a period that includes the stagflationary recession of the 1970s, the Global Financial Crisis, and the downturn resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic.
What makes consumers so gloomy?
Their concerns about high prices increased significantly. This much is clear: consumers absolutely hate inflation. But the question is, do they hate this policy enough to reduce their spending? That remains to be seen.
4) Booming Big Banks Starting Earnings Season
The six largest US banks posted a record trading revenue of $45 billion during Q1, up 17% YoY.
All six posted strong earnings beat growth in net income over the past year:
- Citigroup: +42% increase in net profit to $5.8 billion.
- Morgan Stanley: +29% increase in net profit to $5.6 billion.
- Goldman Sachs: +19% increase in net profit to $5.6 billion.
- Bank of America: +17% increase in net profit to $8.6 billion.
- JPMorgan Chase: +13% increase in net profit to $16.5 billion.
- Wells Fargo: +7% increase in net income to $5.3 billion.
Overall S&P 500 earnings are expected to hit another record high in Q1, up 14% YoY.
5) Some Interesting Statistics..
a) Since 1949, the S&P 500 has generated an average gain of +38% in the year following a market downturn. And that’s what it got last year after the market bore the brunt of tariffs in 2025. (video discussion)
b) The total Fertility Rate in the US has fallen to 1.57 births per woman, which is an all-time low.
c) The majority of US stocks (59%) underperformed Treasury securities over their lifetime and 45% ended with negative cumulative returns. (discussion video)
d) 29% of wealth creation from US stocks in the last hundred years came from just 10 stocks. (discussion video)
And that’s all for this week. Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!
Every week I create a video detailing the most important charts and themes in markets and investing. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE for the latest content.
Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosure here.
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